Just under half of US consumers are planning to switch to an electric vehicle (EV) within the next five years, a GlobalData survey has found. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s election victory may create uncertainty in the EV insurance market, driven by his views on EVs and his stance on trade.
According to GlobalData’s 2024 Emerging Trends Insurance Consumer Survey, 46.3% of US consumers plan to switch to an EV in the next five years. More specifically, 22.2% plan to do so in 3–5 years, 17.9% within 1–2 years, and 6.2% within the next 12 months. On the other hand, 41.3% of US consumers have not yet contemplated switching to a fully electric vehicle.
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Meanwhile, Trump’s election win in November 2024 may create uncertainty in the EV market, driven by his views on EVs and his stance on trade. President-elect Trump has expressed scepticism toward EVs, criticising government incentives and regulations promoting their adoption. He has pledged to end what he describes as an “electric vehicle mandate.” Despite this, Trump has acknowledged the role of EVs in the market, particularly following endorsements from industry leaders such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Moreover, the ongoing US-China trade war is expected to be a major factor impacting the US motor market, especially for EVs. Trump has expressed support for heightened tariffs on Chinese imports, including EVs, batteries, and semiconductors—critical components for EV production. These increased tariffs are expected to raise EV manufacturing costs, potentially slowing EV adoption and, in turn, affecting the growth of motor insurance premiums over the next five years.
Another uncertainty for the EV market is Trump’s stance on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). His plans to end the IRA’s EV tax credits could lead to slower consumer adoption of EVs, delaying insurers’ shift toward EV-focused policies. Trump’s support for internal combustion engines in the mid-term further complicates the outlook for EVs, likely prolonging the transition to EVs.
Nonetheless, Trump’s emphasis on promoting domestic manufacturing of EV components such as batteries and semiconductors could eventually offer stability to the insurance market. By fostering a US-based EV supply chain, this policy could reduce reliance on imports over time, potentially making EV production more resilient to global trade fluctuations. While Trump’s policies may slow EV growth in the short term, his focus on domestic production could provide long-term benefits for US-based insurers, supporting a more sustainable, US-centric EV industry.
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